The ILCYM-GIS environment for pest risk assessments
Once a full life-cycle pest model for a pest under study is completed, i.e. all parameters and functions for the different temperature-driven processes in the life-cycle of the species are determined and the overall model has been compiled in ILCYM, the model can be used to simulate the species’ population growth potential spatially or for a given location over time using the GIS environment implemented in ILCYM. Three spatially referenced pest risk indices displaying the risk of establishment, numbers of generations per year, and an activity index can be computed spatially. The simulation is based on daily maximum and minimum temperatures as inputs. For global or regional scale simulations, data based on WorldClim are preinstalled in the ILCYM’s pest risk modeling module. WorldClim is a set of global climate layers (grids) with a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds ~1 km2 (downloadable at http://www.worldclim.org) and described in Hijmans et al. (2005). WordClim provides monthly aggregated climate variables. Because this aggregation might raise substantial problems of temporal scale, daily maximum and minimum temperatures are interpolated for each grid before simulation. For predicting the species’ responses to climate change, similar maps can be generated for climate change scenarios using an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM), which is included in ILCYM. The latter data are described by Govindasamy et al. (2003) and forecast global climate for the year 2050. Specific spots (grids) in the map may be selected and the pest species population growth parameters can be simulated over time. For regional forecast at higher spatial resolution or higher data accuracy, users are able to load their own temperature data, i.e. real data measured by meteorological stations for simulations over time or data sets from local meteorological institutes for a given area for spatial simulations.