Outlook for further developments planned for ILCYM
In its present state, the pest phenology models developed by using ILCYM provide information about the potential pest population growth under a given temperature regime. Hence they are useful for understanding quantitative pest biology. An important issue in integrated pest management research is to evaluate the potential effects of certain pest management strategies. To use ILCYM for this purpose, specific model components are needed to be implemented additionally. It would be impossible to design and develop a modeling approach that could meet all possible purposes. But several model components that might extend the present modeling approach to meet more specific purposes important in IPM research are currently under development. At present, CIP develops phenology models for parasitoids specific to potato tuber moth. These models will be coupled with the existing model (two species interaction model) with the purpose of predicting potential release areas according to climatic (temperature) conditions, for example for the polyembryonic egg parasitoid Copidosoma koehleri Blanchard (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae). However, the approach is species specific and will not fit each host-parasitoid relationship. Hence, the model structure needs to be modified according to the needs of any specific two-species-interaction model. Furthermore, CIP studies the potential of entomopathogenic microorganisms used in IPM strategies. Several entomopathogens, like baculoviruses, attack specific stages of the pest (i.e. the larval stage), and within this stage only individuals of a specific age (the young larva). The phenology models developed by using ILCYM provide information about the pest insect population age-stage structure. Therefore, it is possible to include a mortality factor that is specific to individuals of a certain stage and age within the pest population. An example of how such a mortality factor might be coupled with pest phenology models (pathogen-pest interaction model) will be given for the baculovirus PoGV – potato tuber moth system. However, this model will not simulate pathogen epizootics in the field over time in its totality because several influencing factors are still not known at present (virus stability, horizontal and vertical virus transmission, etc.). Knowledge of such factors and their effects on population development in the field are essential for a realistic model and need to be assessed in additional experiments. CIP currently conducts research on several biological properties of PoGV that might be included in future modeling research. For modeling aculovirus epizootic, to date no satisfying model has been developed. Future research is necessary to explore these gaps. As a final example, CIP is currently studying the effect on female oviposition rates due to reduced adult male densities, with the objective of estimating the potential effects on population growth rates due to reducing adult male field populations using the “attract-and-kill” approach. Including this factor in the existing potato tuber moth model might help to define hypothesis for field experiments conducted in different agroecologies and provide more reliable interpretation of results obtained from field experiments under a variety of climatic conditions.